TheByte

Harry Plopper

I doubt McCain will pick a Mormon for VP.

Lieberman's name on a McCain's ticket would on the other hand be a kiss of death for Obama/Biden ticket.

With Lieberman on ticket, McCain would demonstrate he not only talks but also practices unity. A true tour-de-bipartisanship.

Also a great number of moderate & conservative independents + even quite some conservative democrats would definitely vote for the McCain / Lieberman ticket.

Obama camp have already dropped the red-state advertising / campaigning, and will focus on purple states mainly. And the pale blue ones.

And in purple states a bipartisan ticket may work - much more than Obama's sweet-talikng (and too liberal positions of both - Obama & Biden).

Obama - demonstrating unity? Nope - only sweet-talking about it. McCain - oh, yes: he put a Democrat in a VP job!

And a uniter usually wins the elections.

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Also: with picking Biden as vP, Obama denied himself as "wind of change" - since it's hard to be a change-maker with one of the most senior Washington insiders on the ticket.


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But as I saiD: I wish the Democrats get the WH.
It would be nice that sometimes in December Obama falls down the basement stairs at home & break his neck, and then Biden swears as US president in January ... Picking Hillary as VP.

Gullwing

If McCain picked Lieberman he could loose a lot of republicans votes. They wont vote for Obama, they just wont vote.
McCain needs to pick someone the republicans can support. You don't go after 10% of the population risking loosing 40%.

McCain should pick a Governor, someone from outside of Washington DC, to show he wants to bring about change, something Obama failed to do. That is why I think he will pick Romney or Pawlenty.

Choleric

If McCain picks a Pro-Choice VP (Lieberman) that is the kiss of death for himself. He will lose all of the social conservative vote.

Harry Plopper

McCain picked pro-life, not-too-social-conservative YOUNG FEMALE as VP.

Sarah Palin (44), Governer of Alaska. The most popular Governer in the US - with approval rating of almost 90%.
Determined, anti-establishment, pro-change fresh face in the national politics.
An operative, not a Washington insider.

A kiss of death to Obama / McCain ticket.

IMO many Clinton supporter will now vote for GOP ticket.

What a brilliant maverick kick by McCain. Completely out-of-the-box thinking.
A bit risky, but very brave move which can pay off hugely.

Choleric

Thats exactly what is On top of the Democratic Ticket and exactly what is the opposite of whats on top ot the GOP. In the end it is the name on top that matters.

You seem to think that women are simple minded or something... if they were HRC supporters they must be women, and if theyre women they will only vote for the ticket with a woman on it.

Many of they HRC supporters were members of the old gaurd in the Democratic party, yes Im sure a large amount were also women but I think it is fooish to assume that simply because they didn't get Hillary they will vote for McCain because he has a woman as VP. A VicePresident who has absolutely Zero Power.

Harry Plopper

First of all to make it clear: I'm completely pro-Democrat, yet don't like Obama as personality.



Not exactly.

Obama promises he WILL BE a reformer (based on no major operative experiences whatsoever, while Palin already IS a reformer with some experience as Alaska governor.

Yet I agree it matters what's on top, while VP is just an image-making appendix to the ticket. Therefore Obama chose Biden as VP to add some experience image (McCain's best weapon), while McCain's VP (Palin) add to change / reforms image (Obama's best weapon).

If Obama is betting on reform image, so is McCain ... by naming to VP position a reforming Governor who is also a female, young, determined, and enough pupulistic to counter Obama's image.
If McCain is betting on experience, so is Obama ... by naming Biden a VP - a senior Senator with plenty of foreign-policy & national-security experiences.

So, both camps now have change / reform & experience on the tickets.
Only Dems putting change / reform first, experience second ... while Reps doing vice versa: experience first, chang / reform second.


It will be an interesting referendum on change & experience.


Obama - a young junior anti-establishment Senator who promises change & hope, has no major foreign&security policy experiences, has named an experienced VP from inside the Washington establishment. None of them having operational experiences.

McCain - an old senior more-than-Obama-establishment Senator who has lots of experiences in national security & foreign policy, and has named a not-so-much nationally-experienced VP from outside the Washington halls, a young female Alaska Governor with operational experiences in reform & anti-establishment attitude.



Not sure about that.
Polls & analyzes show some segment of Clinton supporters (mainly conservative Democrates & moderate independents) are not ready to blindly vote for Obama just because he is a Democartic candidate.
And especially women in this particular population are feminists who finally want to see a women in WH.
Definitely not all of them will be lured by Palin, but perhaps only enough of them (especially in swing states) to elect McCain next US president.



I agree with that. VP is just an accessory on the ticket.


*****

But anyway: this elections are of historic proportions - in any case US will get either first non-white President, or first female VP (an even a Republican one!!!).
A quantum leap for USA politics.

Choleric

I agree with you in some degree, but saying Palin has operational/reform experience is shaky at best. Remember she was in charge of a state with more polar bears than people, this isn't California she was running. Romney would have been the better bet for McCain, he has reform experience and the experience of running a large populated state or even Huckabee who would have shored up the religous right and brought executive credentials to the table.

Harry Plopper

I'm sure both Dems & Reps has internal polls on their tables, showing which voters they have to address to win purple states. I'm sure hardcore Red & Blue states are already out of the equation for the opposite party.

Obama is a preacher with enormous charisma, and huge movement behind. McCain has some catch-up to do. And he can only do it with some risky moves. Naming Palin is one of such moves.

Romney ... he is a Mormon! C'mon.

It's almost like putting Amish, Muslim or Scientolog on a US Presidential ticket.
Huckabee ... appeals to social-conservative voter only. Not enough!

Yes, I agree running Alaska is not running California (Go Arnnie! ), but better this than nothing. It's all about image after all.

Of course Palin is not perfect, but quite impressive figure. I've watched her "acceptance speech" ... And I was impressed. She is good in speaking populisticly. Not as good as Obama, but definitely better speaker than McCain, Biden & Clinton. Of course it fas form over content, but ...

I'm sure she is conservative enough to appeal to hardcore conservatives: she is anti-abortion, pro-capital-punishment, anti-gay-marriage, pro-gun, fiscal-conservative, devoted wife, mother of 5 - one going to serve in Iraq on 9/11 (how symbolic!).

And she will definitely appeal to some blue-collars / middle-class: she was born into middle class family, her husband is a union member, she was a journalist, a fisherwoman, and a small-business-runner before entering the politics.

And she is young, of female sex, managing family & career - even having an infant with Down Syndrome.

Etc. ....

Choleric

Impressive she may be but this whole campaign Mac has been chastising Obama for being unexperienced. Who does he pick for VP a two year governor who hasnt had to take a stand with any national issues such as Iraq, Russia etc... hasnt run for any national office, hasnt been in a multitude of heated debates, hasnt had to deal with any national media. Just two years in the Alaska governors mansion...

Harry Plopper

Unfortunately Sarah Palin doesn't make Obama more experienced.

Yes, Obama camp claims with Palin on the GOP ticket the "experience issue" is now off the table.

But I'm not sure that's the case. Since GOP still can claim unexperienced #1 is much more problematic than less-experienced / unexperienced #2.

After all as you said: it's all about #1 on the ticket.

I found the question "What if something happens to McCain ..." very ridiculous. Since Dems will have unexperienced guy in the WH from the day one, while in the Reps case it's all about "what if ...".


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Does anyone know where to find latest polls by all 50 states? National polls are not very representative due US electoral voting system - while polls show potential national popular vote.