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Harry Plopper · 10-21-2008, 06:16 AM

Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt

- Public announcement GEAB N°28 (October 16, 2008) -

In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.). Of course such a bankruptcy will provoke some very negative outcome for all USD-denominated asset holders. According to our team, the period that will then begin should be conducive to the setting up of a « new Dollar » to remedy the problem of default and of induced massive capital drain from the US. The process will result from the following five factors studied in detail further in this GEAB:

• The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets

• Thanks to its recent « political baptism », the Euro becomes a credible « safe haven » value and therefore provides a « crisis » alternative to the US dollar

• The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably

• The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country's defaulting

• « Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009? », that is the only question.

Complete article ... HERE

Rob · 10-21-2008, 10:45 AM

This is very very bad.

Once investors start dumping the US dollar, its value will plummet -- the US National debt stands at just over $10 Trillion USD right now, once inflation takes hold it is frightening to imagine what it could reach.

Harry Plopper · 10-21-2008, 11:27 AM

Zillion will officially become a number in US in the near future.

Sad but true.

Matt530i · 10-21-2008, 08:33 PM

This is an over reaction. Keep in mind that the US GDP is $14 trillion per year and that their current debt to GDP figure is around 70%. Italy (Debt to GDP = 104%) and Japan (Debt to GDP = 195%) are far more leveraged and have been for quite a while and they are not suffering from hyper inflation.

Also consider that China holds over $1 trillion of USD foreign currency reserves. China's not going to just let the US dollar collapse and loose all that money.

Mikael · 10-23-2008, 10:14 AM

Here are some quite recent figures.

Foreign owners of US Treasury Securities (July 2008)

Nation billions of dollars percentage

Japan 593.4 22.17%
Mainland China 518.7 19.38%
United Kingdom 290.8 10.87%
Oil exporters 173.9 6.50%
Brazil 148.4 5.54%
Caribbean banking centers 133.5 4.99%
Luxembourg 75.8 2.83%
Russia 74.1 2.77%
Hong Kong 60.6 2.26%
Switzerland 45.1 1.69%
Republic of China (Taiwan) 42.3 1.58%
Norway 41.8 1.56%
Germany 41.1 1.54%
Mexico 36.0 1.35%
South Korea 35.3 1.32%
Turkey 32.4 1.21%
Thailand 31.8 1.19%
Singapore 31.4 1.17%
Canada 26.6 0.99%
Netherlands 14.9 0.56%
Poland 13.9 0.52%
Egypt 13.4 0.50%
Chile 13.1 0.49%
India 13.0 0.49%
Sweden 12.4 0.46%
Belgium 12.0 0.45%
Ireland 11.2 0.42%

All other 139.5 5.21%

Grand Total 2676.4

10-21-2008, 06:16 AM	#1
Harry Plopper Oinky Wizard Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,482 Thanks: 11 Thanked 137 Times in 80 Posts	US to face bankruptcy & hyperinflation in June 2009? Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt - Public announcement GEAB N°28 (October 16, 2008) - In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.). Of course such a bankruptcy will provoke some very negative outcome for all USD-denominated asset holders. According to our team, the period that will then begin should be conducive to the setting up of a « new Dollar » to remedy the problem of default and of induced massive capital drain from the US. The process will result from the following five factors studied in detail further in this GEAB: • The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets • Thanks to its recent « political baptism », the Euro becomes a credible « safe haven » value and therefore provides a « crisis » alternative to the US dollar • The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably • The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country's defaulting • « Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009? », that is the only question. Complete article ... HERE

10-21-2008, 10:45 AM	#2
Rob Aficionado Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 4,618 Thanks: 892 Thanked 719 Times in 401 Posts	Re: US to face bankruptcy & hyperinflation in June 2009? This is very very bad. Once investors start dumping the US dollar, its value will plummet -- the US National debt stands at just over $10 Trillion USD right now, once inflation takes hold it is frightening to imagine what it could reach.

10-21-2008, 11:27 AM	#3
Harry Plopper Oinky Wizard Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,482 Thanks: 11 Thanked 137 Times in 80 Posts	Re: US to face bankruptcy & hyperinflation in June 2009? Zillion will officially become a number in US in the near future. Sad but true.

10-21-2008, 08:33 PM	#4
Matt530i Enthusiast Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Toronto, Canada Posts: 120 Thanks: 1 Thanked 4 Times in 4 Posts	Re: US to face bankruptcy & hyperinflation in June 2009? This is an over reaction. Keep in mind that the US GDP is $14 trillion per year and that their current debt to GDP figure is around 70%. Italy (Debt to GDP = 104%) and Japan (Debt to GDP = 195%) are far more leveraged and have been for quite a while and they are not suffering from hyper inflation. Also consider that China holds over $1 trillion of USD foreign currency reserves. China's not going to just let the US dollar collapse and loose all that money.

10-23-2008, 10:14 AM	#5
Mikael Fanatic Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,836 Thanks: 828 Thanked 415 Times in 233 Posts	Re: US to face bankruptcy & hyperinflation in June 2009? Here are some quite recent figures. Foreign owners of US Treasury Securities (July 2008) Nation billions of dollars percentage Japan 593.4 22.17% Mainland China 518.7 19.38% United Kingdom 290.8 10.87% Oil exporters 173.9 6.50% Brazil 148.4 5.54% Caribbean banking centers 133.5 4.99% Luxembourg 75.8 2.83% Russia 74.1 2.77% Hong Kong 60.6 2.26% Switzerland 45.1 1.69% Republic of China (Taiwan) 42.3 1.58% Norway 41.8 1.56% Germany 41.1 1.54% Mexico 36.0 1.35% South Korea 35.3 1.32% Turkey 32.4 1.21% Thailand 31.8 1.19% Singapore 31.4 1.17% Canada 26.6 0.99% Netherlands 14.9 0.56% Poland 13.9 0.52% Egypt 13.4 0.50% Chile 13.1 0.49% India 13.0 0.49% Sweden 12.4 0.46% Belgium 12.0 0.45% Ireland 11.2 0.42% All other 139.5 5.21% Grand Total 2676.4

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US to face bankruptcy & hyperinflation in June 2009?